Case study · Consumer goods
A forecast sales and supply both sign up to
Consumer goods manufacturers balance promotions, seasonality and retailer orders against production capacity. This is how we implemented demand planning in Dynamics 365 so statistical forecasts, sales knowledge and supply plans come together in one process.
Project overview
Demand planning on Dynamics 365 SCM.
- Industry
- Consumer goods
- Client
- Confidential
- Solution
- Demand planning
- Platform
- D365 Demand Planning
- Timeline
- 12–20 weeks
- Team
- 3 people
- SKUs
- 500–5,000
- Inputs
- History, promotions, sales input
- Cadence
- Monthly S&OP
Expected business outcomes
What the client set out to achieve
Forecast accuracy drives both service levels and stock.
-
10–25%
Better forecast accuracy
Statistical forecasts refined with sales and promotion input.
Target range measured as reduced forecast error
-
10–20%
Lower safety stock
Better forecasts reduce the buffer needed for the same service level.
Target range after several cycles
-
Monthly
Structured S&OP
One forecast reviewed by sales, supply and finance each month.
Where the process is adopted
Business challenges
How forecasting worked before
Forecasts exist, but not in one place and not agreed.
Forecasts
Built in Excel by a planner from last year's sales.
Sales input
Account managers' expectations shared by email.
Promotions
Promotional uplift estimated separately and added late.
Supply
Production plans based on a different version of the forecast.
Meetings
Monthly meetings argue about numbers instead of decisions.
Proposed solution
What the build covers
Dynamics 365 Demand Planning with a clear monthly process.
-
Statistical forecasts
Forecasts by SKU and customer from history with seasonality.
-
Collaboration
Sales adjust forecasts for their accounts with reasons recorded.
-
Promotions
Promotional uplift planned and tracked against actuals.
-
Supply linkage
The agreed forecast feeds master planning.
-
Accuracy tracking
Forecast error by product, customer and planner.
-
S&OP cadence
A monthly cycle with clear inputs, reviews and sign-off.
Project requirements
What the client asked us for
The request was better forecasts. Most of the improvement comes from process: one forecast, clear ownership and measured accuracy.
We measure accuracy from the first cycle, so the business can see which adjustments improve the forecast and which don't.
What the project had to deliver
- 01One agreed forecast
- 02Sales input with reasons
- 03Promotions planned, not guessed
- 04Accuracy measured every month
Key challenges & considerations
What made it harder, and what we did
-
Short sales history for new products
What we did
New products borrowed the history of similar items until their own sales built up.
-
Retailer ordering patterns
What we did
Retailer ordering patterns were modelled separately from consumer demand.
-
Promotions planned late
What we did
Promotions were tagged in the history and entered on a planning calendar in advance.
-
Different forecast levels for sales and supply
What we did
A single forecast was held at the lowest level and aggregated for the sales and supply views.
What we watched for
- Tag promotions in history
- Record reasons for adjustments
- Measure accuracy from cycle one
- Keep S&OP meetings about decisions
Development process
Data, forecast, process
The system and the monthly process go live together.
-
Data preparation
Sales history cleaned and promotions tagged.
-
Forecast models
Statistical forecasts configured and back-tested.
-
Collaboration
Sales adjustment workflow set up.
-
Supply link
Forecast connected to master planning.
-
S&OP cycles
Several monthly cycles run with coaching.
Technology stack
Dynamics 365 Demand Planning
Microsoft's demand planning with supply chain integration.
Planning
- D365 Demand Planning
- Planning Optimization
ERP
- D365 SCM
- D365 Finance
Data
- Sales history
- Promotion calendar
Reporting
- Power BI
- Forecast accuracy
Quality assurance & deployment
Rehearsed until cut-over was routine
Finance and supply chain systems cannot be tested in production. Processes were proved end to end in test environments, and the cut-over was rehearsed until it held no surprises.
- End-to-end process tests across finance and operations
- Automated regression tests for standard and extended processes
- Data migration rehearsals, reconciled entity by entity
- User acceptance testing by business process owners
- Performance tests at real transaction volumes
Deployment
- 01Supply linkForecast connected to master planning.
- 02S&OP cyclesSeveral monthly cycles run with coaching.
- 03Rehearsed cut-overA timed cut-over plan, rehearsed at least twice, with a go or no-go decision by the business.
- 04Hypercare and warrantyOn-site or remote support through the first period close, and six months of free bug fixing.
Final deliverables
One forecast, one plan
Sales, supply and finance work from one forecast that combines statistics with commercial knowledge, and production plans follow it.
Forecast accuracy is measured every month, so the process keeps improving.
- Statistical forecasts
- Collaborative adjustments
- Planned promotions
- Measured accuracy
Handed over to the client
- 01Configured Dynamics 365Production and test environments
- 02Extensions and integrationsSource code and documentation
- 03Migrated dataReconciled entity by entity
- 04Process documentation and trainingBy business process
- 05Six-month warrantyFree bug fixing after delivery
Success metrics
How success is measured
| Measure | Outcome | How it is measured |
|---|---|---|
| Better forecast accuracy | 10–25% | Target range measured as reduced forecast error |
| Lower safety stock | 10–20% | Target range after several cycles |
| Structured S&OP | Monthly | Where the process is adopted |
Verified reviews
What clients say about our Dynamics work
Verified reviews from our clients on the same kind of work, published on Clutch.
-
Custom Software Development
Web-Based Coupon App Development
The work produced by the team was of exceptional quality.
Jon Thies
CTO, Model Rocket Feb 2022 – Mar 2023
-
Custom Software Development
Mobile & Web Platform Development & Design
Silver Scintilla was responsive, respectful, and enjoyable to work with, quickly addressing any questions or requests.
DeShawn Brown
CEO & Founder, Lithios Jun 2021 – Nov 2022
-
Custom Software Development
Web-Based HRM System Development
Silver Scintilla provided the best solution with scalable functionality, personalized features, and robust security.
Suheb Khan
Director, Collaborative Insight Technologies Jul 2020 – Jun 2022
Related
Services we used on this project
Free discovery call
Have an idea? Let's turn it into AI-powered software.
Book a free discovery call with our experts. Share your idea and we will help you shape the scope, timeline and budget, under NDA.
- Free consultation
- NDA before we talk
- Transparent estimate